Jason Weber (00:00)
You know, welcome to Two Coaches and a Coffee. Darren Burgess and Jason Webber here with you. Couple of weeks in a row now, Burgess and we're on a roll.
Darren (00:07)
Yeah, isn't that exciting, mate? It's exciting time of the year.
Jason Weber (00:10)
It's unique. Well, we've got to
say it's a hot topic in Australia at the moment is obviously is not obviously but for those outside of Australia AFL finals time. So we're one week with the last round before the finals and we're happy to say that the Eagles are a game clear in number one. So they will finish minor premieres. That's correct. Is it not? Oh, the crows. It was bird, man. I know it was a bird.
Darren (00:33)
Eagles, Eagles are the crows.
Jason Weber (00:39)
Haha, I said Eagles. What a faux pas that is.
Darren (00:39)
Yeah,
no, my team that I work for, we're not a guarantee of finishing first, but we are a guarantee of finishing first or second. ⁓ We are, but if we lost our final game and Geelong win their final game comfortably, yeah.
Jason Weber (00:46)
The eagles.
Right, I thought you were going clean now.
and by percentage.
Darren (01:04)
Yeah, so it's exciting. Hopefully we'll win our last game and then confirm minor premiership, which is good, but as you know, it means nothing.
Jason Weber (01:04)
What?
Really awesome. No, unfortunately.
Like Billy Beane said in the famous movie Moneyball, if you lose the last game of the year, nobody cares.
Darren (01:18)
Exactly. I'm typing ⁓ while I'm on the podcast. I apologize for that because there's a little bit going on at the moment. One of our star players has just been suspended for an incident for four games. So there's a little bit going on. It literally just happened as we went live, but this is only time you and I both had some time. So, mate.
Jason Weber (01:20)
So yeah, we've got a bit.
Nah, all good, mate. Yes. Bye.
Well, yeah.
Darren (01:43)
Finals time, interesting time. We've got a couple of players out and I'm getting all kinds of pressure to bring these players back in for finals. How do you handle that?
Jason Weber (01:55)
So that brings like, all right, so that's a good question. Let's look at two different circumstances. So you're at the of the table, irrespective of result, guaranteed one or two. Let's just speculate. So yeah, yeah, yeah. So you've got a guaranteed outcome, but you're bringing back a player. What's the player? Don't be specific, but come off four weeks, three weeks, two weeks injured, what is it?
Darren (02:05)
which is basically the same. It's basically the same. There's no real difference.
Jason Weber (02:21)
ProPak.
Darren (02:21)
We've got one player off six weeks and one off eight weeks. Yeah.
Jason Weber (02:25)
Okay, so they're longer. Let's look
at the other end of the table. So the playoff for the last position in the finals is My Old Club Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs, has got that Darren's opposite there is going on Dan Zaknic, who is used to work with me at Freo for long time, a great operator. They are flying. Now, Freo have got the opportunity to bring back one of their very best players who has had a broken year to be blunt.
Darren (02:52)
Yes.
Jason Weber (02:53)
come off a couple of hamstrings into a surgery. now he came back off the surgery, played three games, I think, and then he done a grind. So the guy's just cooked. mean, I think they've done a great job, blah, blah, blah. But there is pressure to bring him back. He's trained well yesterday. They say in the news, they've got another kid coming back off four weeks of an ankle. And you've got to die on the bench as a substitute who is an elite player, of the ages, but.
May struggle if you had to play a large portion of the game. Now you've got like it's do or die. They're in an elimination final. you're going to play Bulldogs are equally going to bring back. think Trelaw is off a bit of an injury run as well. And he's there. They're looking at him. So in this case, everybody's bringing back. So here's my thought. All right. And you just see what you think. I think Darren's got in a way, the luxury. They have the afforded luxury of having one.
Darren (03:31)
yeah, okay.
Jason Weber (03:44)
I wouldn't race my man back off six and eight weeks. If you could get, I tend to think if they can get Sanful going, which is the tier below, if they could get game time in, it would be ideal. Ideal on a fast track would be better.
Darren (03:53)
Yep.
What about
you're in a sudden death situation?
Jason Weber (04:03)
No, that's the flip side, right? So the flip side is...
Darren (04:05)
So give me, with
our situation, you're saying you wouldn't play them this week and I tend to agree.
Jason Weber (04:09)
No,
Oh yeah, but in the flip side, so let's go to the other end of the town, Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, I think you've got no choice. Every coach under the sun would say, I mean, the great Ross Lyons used to always say to me, is the injury that bad? If it was grand final, would they play? Now you can't say, you can't have that argument every week of the year, but if you're in an elimination final, yes, I think you've got to play them. My only question is, how many do you play?
Like you can carry one, you can protect one, but protecting multiple injured players, it feels like it's fraught with risk. for a player, let's say the best player, arguably that Freemail would bring back is Hayden Young. Undoubtedly, you're going to play him. You have to win, but you kind of wonder. And it would be dependent on, I guess, if we take it to a practical level and stop being a gooey fan of some description.
Darren (04:38)
Yes.
Jason Weber (05:00)
is what's the data telling you through the week? The guys have done game simulations the week previous, the weekend previous, they've trained a full week. So they've had two to three weeks off, they've trained a full week, they've matched protocols. You would hope they've ticked all the boxes they need. There's probably a reasonable probability to go.
Darren (05:18)
It is a-
Do you reckon, what if they haven't done Matsum? Here's the, the... ⁓
Jason Weber (05:25)
So
that's in the media. In the media they said they did match him. So what's the match? Does the match him really meet needs? Which becomes a monitoring question, which is very another interesting one that I would pose in the strongest way is particularly evaluating contact.
Darren (05:40)
So
what's the minimal effective dose, right? So you've got a player who, and let's use broad terms, who might in a normal game of AFL might do 14K, 2000 high speed and 200 meters sprint to keep it really simple.
Jason Weber (05:52)
Yeah. Yeah.
Yeah, but so. So my thing with that would be you're not minimal effective dose implies that you're trying to make them fitter. You're trying to evaluate, can they survive? Can they output? Have they got enough in the tank from all the work they've done previous to get them through? So I think the evaluation of. Yes, there'll be some stimulus from the game sim.
Darren (05:57)
What do you need to get them to Jason?
Jason Weber (06:20)
But the game seems to give you confidence that if it, let's say they get through 80 % of that as a volume market, just as a round, if they get through 80%, you could reasonably expect within, let's say a confidence interval of 95 % that the next week they could get to 85, 90 % of that. And I'm saying their game volume, whatever that was specifically, that you'd be comfortable that you could get through it. So you take that margin of error. Let's it's gone.
Darren (06:42)
Yep.
So, go, you
go. Well, so if he needs to get 10K, 2,200, you're saying, yeah, you have to get around about nine and then 1,800 high speed and 180 sprint. As long as he got to those, you'd be comfortable.
Jason Weber (06:49)
No, no, you go, mate. Go.
If
As long as the progressions that proceeded then were in place, yes. So they have to have come through, like let's just take a random, let's take groin injury 21 days, right? So a match in the week before is probably a pretty good result for a 21 day injury. He's probably done quite well to be seven days, seven day. If he's done seven days out and he's knocked out a game sim of let's say.
Darren (07:25)
Yeah, it'd be fantastic.
Jason Weber (07:31)
even 75, 70 percent. He's progressed up. You'd feel like that next jump was probably attainable. The issue that I have, not have, but the challenge and the risk in that particular situation is that player has just had a tough year because of injury, so he hasn't got a lot behind him. And I think it's like it's a mute point, really. Like, you're going to play them. I was on the, let's say I was in your situation with those guys coming back, I wouldn't play.
Darren (07:48)
Yes.
Jason Weber (07:58)
ensure they got another game somewhere else, them through a bit more.
Darren (08:02)
If you've got the luxury, guess my argument, because I would probably play the superstar if it's a sudden death game. Without having got the... If he's clear clinically and has done main training, he might have only got to 50 % of that. I'd probably still play him.
Jason Weber (08:10)
absolutely, absolutely not.
I get your risk. my caveat always with that is, and I've seen this, is we take the elite player and because he's elite, we're going to give him a bit more room to move. Therefore we're going to play him off not much. And then he fails in the first 20 minutes because the speed of the game was up and they bail 20 minutes in and then all of a sudden, let's say in Fremantle's case, they've got a Brennan on Nathan Fife, who's an awesome player, but he's going to struggle.
Darren (08:40)
All right,
Jason Weber (08:50)
going from second quarter out likely. Like you can probably come on and kill it in your second arm. So that's my...
Darren (08:54)
⁓
So that's a different discussion. If you've got a player on the bench or as a substitute in the AFL who might not be able to get through a whole game, that's probably a different discussion.
Jason Weber (08:59)
No, but...
Yeah, yeah.
It is, but even with standing, like, let's say, let's change the tax slightly. Let's say it's rugby union and you change a prop and the prop, the, best prop, you know, like let's say Taniela Tupo, who's a current Wallabies prop. He's got some injury history. I he just does. Right. So let's say they run him off a short. He had an issue that put him back in and he doesn't have an issue for anyone watching before they, well, he's played in the South Africans this week.
I'm just making this up. It's just random. But say he's had a small issue, they put him back in and he fails 20 minutes. That means then your reserve prop has now got to go 60. And that might be a stretch. that in the back end of a test match, that's a big deal. So I think, I think part of, is there a point to this conversation? I think the point is evaluating all the pieces and trying to make sense of it. I agree.
hell or high water, you gotta push the kids through. We played a kid in the grand final, had a torn calf, right? He hadn't really gone for two weeks. And I evaluated it, like we did some tricks and everything, all the rest of that, but I had to test him in the warmup and he played and he didn't walk for fucking 10 weeks after that because he shredded the shit out of him. But you got him up and he was, he was elite in the game. and you get in there. So would I play the, the,
Darren (10:06)
Yeah, it is.
Jason Weber (10:25)
the really good player off a short run. Absolutely. But I would try to make sense of the risk because the same thing becomes then in, in AFL, we have the ability to rotate, but the rotations are still a mathematical problem. There's only X number, there's only 90 rotations. There's only so many minutes in a game. have to be distributed somewhere. So if you're going to play that player short, he has to go into a role that's on lower rotations. Somebody else has to take that
Darren (10:52)
Yeah.
Jason Weber (10:52)
Distance. Someone has to run.
Darren (10:53)
Yeah, you have those levers to pull. You have those levers to pull in AFL, which you might not in other sports, and you have them in in soccer because you can play them off a sub. And I guess we did a stat. This is 12, 13 years ago, which is really popular stat. Wall stat wins above your replacement. And so we actually put a value on if you played
Jason Weber (10:57)
Yeah.
Yeah.
Darren (11:13)
Jason Weber, your superstar, and he was at 80 % versus Darren Burgess, your reserve in the same position at 100%. We actually put a value on that to say, okay, what's the value on it? And that was based on a whole range of different factors. And was it right or wrong? I don't know, but the logic was sound. ⁓ So I think.
Jason Weber (11:24)
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Did you ever see
that? Did you ever see that method file?
Darren (11:38)
Well, what we did see is based on our homogenous data from our single club, we did see a tipping point and it was around about 74%, I think from memory, where 100 % Darren Burgess would be better than a 74 % Jason Webber. And so how do you estimate the 74 %? And we had some algorithms running in the background that would do that for us, but
It didn't fail, it probably did. It probably did. I can't remember, but I'm sure it did.
Jason Weber (12:07)
That just.
Just to
be clear for people listening, and algorithm's not a magic word, right? Algorithms like that, so Darren's an automated calculation, but it's based on assumptions and it's based on inference that we believe this, therefore there's a calculation. There's no magic way to say Darren's 100 and my 75 % are equal. There's just no way. But you're going to take best guess, and I agree.
Darren (12:16)
Nah.
Yes.
Jason Weber (12:38)
When you say the logic's right, yeah, I agree with you. And I think if you're in a situation where you're having that discussion, if everybody's on board and there's a good and solid debate about it, it's worthwhile of interest. Here's one to go just sideways. So I was working with one of my Paralympians today, he's an equestrian athlete. And she has principally one functional leg, right? So riding a horse is quite challenging. Anyway, we've come up with some, she came in,
to see me today and said, in my last competition, I got some comments back, blah, blah, A, C, and D. We had to examine and think about what were the causes of that? Where was that coming from? We had no data. We had to decide internally. If we're going to pursue a solution, we have to agree on an assumption that we understand or have concluded together.
Darren (13:08)
Thank you.
Yep.
Jason Weber (13:31)
that there's a problem here, this is how we're going to treat it, which is the same thing, right? It's coming to a common agreement. Sometimes you do have to use inference and experience and all those things because there aren't magic numbers for everything. And that, can I just throw a little grenade is that's where I think people are getting people who are besotted by eccentric hamstring and force plates and GPS. We have all the answers. You don't. All right.
Darren (13:41)
Yep.
Jason Weber (13:57)
And it will come down to understanding the coach and someone like Darren getting together and talking through what do we think this person can get done. And I agree, there are going to be players where their 75 % are better than my best 100 day ever.
So there is a bit there, don't get caught up exclusively. I'm as much data driven as anybody, but I'm a coach first before I'm a data scientist.
Darren (14:24)
Yeah, exactly. And look, our job is to provide as much information as possible, provide the risks. What are the risks of Jason Webber redoing his calf if he's come off a three week gastroc? What are the risks? Are you willing to take that? If in that situation for our sport, AFL,
⁓ I would be sure to say the substitute needs to be someone of a similar position. They just have to be. ⁓
Jason Weber (14:53)
Rock solid. Yeah, they have to be rock
solid. That's the thing. can't, the one I hate is when you carry someone on the bench who, if they had to go on in the first minute. I've seen guys running on the field and tear a calf. Like they're done. Bring the next guy in. And the next guy is only good for 20 minutes. we were only gonna play him off the bench. That's not what it is.
Darren (15:07)
Yeah.
Yeah, in football, soccer, can take a risk at either end a little bit more because you have five substitutes now. So you can take a risk at the 50 to 60 minute end, knowing that you have two or three people on the bench who can cover that player's position. Or you could take a risk at the start, him or her on the bench and bring them on if the game's drifting away. You don't have that luxury in AFL. You do have some luxuries.
Jason Weber (15:26)
No.
Darren (15:43)
but you don't quite have the same luxury. It's my view that, I mean we're talking about going to five on the bench, I think that's ridiculous. I think four is plenty, five is just way too much. ⁓
Jason Weber (15:55)
But if they go
to five, mate, it's gonna, so interestingly, Dar and I have been around long enough to see the changes in dynamics of the AFL in the rules they, so when they went to unlimited rotations and like we could spin, like there was one point there in the, don't know, around 2010, 11, it was like ice hockey. We were just spinning dudes, like they go on, they'd run for four minutes, run flat out, come off the field and go again. Now you're not getting a rotation under, you know.
8-10 minutes probably depending on some spots but most guys if they run a short slot just for rotations will then do a long one somewhere else. But those things have a tremendous impact on the game, massive impact.
Darren (16:24)
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah, they do, particularly obviously in a high pressure game where there's all kinds of intensity, which pretty much every game from now on for teams in the top eight is every game's a final. right, because we've only got a short period of time, now is also the time where staff are getting laid off. We spoke about this a couple of weeks ago. I don't want to comment. Yeah, I don't want to comment it from the.
Jason Weber (16:43)
⁓
We talk about this all the time.
Darren (17:00)
the laying off point of view, what if you're a two IC at an AFL club and you've heard that there's a club X who are laying off their high performance manager and you want to put your hand up for it. Do you wait till it's advertised taking the risk that it might not be advertised because most people might advertise but they generally target four or five people. How do you approach that?
Jason Weber (17:20)
Yeah.
Darren (17:25)
Jason, for the last five minutes of this chat.
Jason Weber (17:27)
To be really honest, mate, I think you've got to try and lay some groundwork, my opinion. You've got to go in, you've got to try and make a contact somewhere and try and, I think, without like, make your presence known. I wouldn't say like, hey, I'm available. Particularly as there are...
Let's say biases that teams will say, we want to get.
Jason Weber (17:51)
you need to try and beat by saying, hey, I'm here. Like, who else is around? ⁓
Darren (17:57)
Who
do you call?
Jason Weber (17:58)
I think anybody you know that can get you in, if you can get into the...
The general manager of football, if you can get into the CEO, if you can get into a board member, it depends who you know, right? If you know a player at the club. Within reason, I would be targeting anybody. And I have done in the past. I absolutely, I think you do it with respect. I mean, in positions where people are at clubs, I've run them to say, if this is, I've heard this thing might be happening, like I don't want to throw you under the bus, but everyone's got to make a move.
And unfortunately, there is a thing about opportunity, right? If opportunity passes you because people don't know you around, I'll tell you one of the biggest illusions I ever lived through. I was at the Wallabies for what, two World Cups. And I thought everything was going pretty well. We did good. We did some good things along that way. When I leave the Wallabies, I'll get job offers everywhere. I'll be great. I'll be fine. You know how many job offers I got?
is zero. Because no one knew I was around. No one knew. It's not like you who get headhunted. You got my, and I think that's the thing. I think if you get your name out there, you're speaking to more people. People know your availability.
Darren (18:57)
No, that's not happening. No, I think...
Jason Weber (19:06)
That's my view.
Darren (19:07)
Yeah, I think if you know that someone's club's making a change, I think you're well within your rights to make a call to the... All GMs are footy, or football directors, depending on your sport, general managers, they're all on LinkedIn or they're reasonably easily obtainable, at least an email address. So think you're well within your rights to make contact and say, I'm interested if there happens to be an opening, if not...
I appreciate you reading this far, know, those sorts of things. Don't say, I just have a coffee or can I have a quick phone call? No, don't say that because, yeah, you can imagine. No, you can imagine how many people you've got messaging you for that if you're in those positions. Make yourself available, attach a CV and away you go. Do it in the most polite, respectful manner. Love to work for your organization.
Jason Weber (19:35)
Yeah.
They don't want to.
Darren (19:56)
would love to, an opportunity to have a chat too if you feel compelled. Here's a couple of people you might want to speak to about me if you want to go that far.
Jason Weber (20:04)
Cool, wait, I know time is short. We're gonna have to wrap this one up, because you got something coming on. So it's been a pleasure as always. Very best of luck on the weekend, mate. I will be cheering for you as always, and I will be cheering for others around the AFL, and also for the Wallabies. Big shout out to them in South Africa. They walloped the Africans last week, but they'll, it'll be a big comeback.
All the best. He's just been disconnected.
All good, mate.
We'll see you next time.
Darren (20:33)
Might I just drop the outfit?
